[MicroBob]

Definitely don't think the ML is worth it here.

I'm almost tempted to take the ML for Miami at +525.

NIU is decent but they just aren't so good that they deserve to be 14 point faves (or 13.5 now on many sites) on the road. They have zero worthwhile wins.
They are 3-2 with their wins coming vs. Buffalo, Indiana State and Ball State. I would still rate Miami as being slightly better than the first two of those three.


They beat Indiana St 48-14. Practically meaningless.
Indiana St lost to Purdue 60-35, E. Illinois 31-21, Murray St, 59-40, S. Illinois 55-3, Youngstown St 55-17.

NIU beat Ball State 40-28. A bit more meaningful since BSU is somewhat competitive. But certainly not anything to brag about.

NIU beat Buffalo 31-13. Again, not too much to brag about. Buffalo isn't as bad as Indiana State but their only win was 9-3 over Temple.

NIU lost to Ohio 35-23. Ohio is 3-3 with a 29-3 win over UT-Martin and 27-20 over Western Michigan.



Miami has been pretty lousy this year including a surprising 16-14 loss at home to Kent State in which they were 14 point favorites (Kent State has since proven they are a team to be reckoned with and are now 4-2).
And a loss in their opener to Northwestern 21-3 and NW is clearly awful, awful, awful this yr.

But Miami lost in OT at Purdue and was competitive with Cincinnati (trailed 17-10 early 4th Q before losing 24-10).


Yes, Garrett Wolfe will be difficult to stop and I don't think Miami is very good.
But -600 on NIU on the road seems like a really risky bet to me.


We'll see. It wouldn't exactly surprise me to see Miami get clobbered on their home-field in this one. But I definitely don't think it's automatic.