View Single Post
  #5  
Old 10-03-2006, 03:11 PM
HoneyBadger HoneyBadger is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Amsterdam
Posts: 2,585
Default Re: 3/6: Str8 draw with multiway action.

I'm not as liberal with my outs as sixforty, but I agree with the overal idea.

You shouldn't count a backdoor flush draw as 1.5 outs, especially when it's not to the nuts. Count it as 1; this is examined in "hold'em on the come". You do get "commitment outs" as a club will make for a more profitable turn call, but 1 is generally good. The straight I'd value at "slightly over 7" It's not to the nut, but I suppose you're fine there. But the bottom end is only a single card straight. I'd neglect the overcards as you really don't want to see a 6. You also don't like your position that much. So that's 8 outs for me. 8 outs is a 1:2.2 and 9 outs a 1:1.9. So two additional players besides you is the break-even point for value betting. You'd like 3 more players to value bet. This is easier when you check the flop. Also, if everybody checks you can't dislike it that much. Problem is when button bets and there is only 1 caller. You'll have to decide between a break-even raise, or a profitable call and an extra player. I don't think you have to raise people out of this pot, tho if you can win with just an 8 that'd be great. You also need to worry slightly about someone holding 76, that'd make you drawing thin. You might just pass up this small edge and c/r the turn if you hit. But indeed, none of that happened, so it's all speculation.

On the turn you straight devalues more, it's only 6 outs now, 1:6.7. But now it's not about value, it's about implied odds. Pot odds are nonsense, it's about how many chips go your way in the end when you hit. How many? Well right now there's 14.6, and CO will call for sure. Plus it's safe to say you'll make at least 2 more bets on the river. So let's keep it at a conservative 17.6. That's 1:8.8, enough to call.
Reply With Quote