[BobJoeJim]

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if you trust your abilities as a handicapper, and you analyze every single game each week, and are willing to take any edge, no matter how small

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I can't speak to football but in baseball the answer is no. Baseball is different though in that baseball teams have 10 times as many games as a football team does. This makes it easier to cherry pick since you get a full slate almost every day compared to once a week.

But no handicapper is good enough to take the very slim edges. Variance is simply too great and you can never really tell if those percieved slim edges are really edges or not. I build in a "fudge factor" to my wagering and won't bet the 10 to 15 cent "percieved" edges my formulas spit out because I know those are really too close to call. But the luxury of baseball wagering is the vast amount of games too choose from making it real easy to pass up the close calls and only go with the bigger edges.

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I meant that you're willing to take any *actual* edge, not that you're willing to take any perceived edge. My question is basically, how many games have no *correct* +ev side, because the juice makes both sides -ev, versus how many games *could* be bet profitably if you knew the true odds. That's why it was a theory question, but as has been said it's probably not a very meaningful question, since with good line shopping the answer is probably: almost every game, if you get in at the right time.

I still feel there's a potentially interesting discussion buried somewhere in this concept, but I think I asked the wrong question to generate it, and I'm not quite sure what the right question is...