Re: weak full house 5/10
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OK, but you realize that moving in is $1100 more, right? And if we get called we are losing most of those times. If you know the guy will call with any boat then disregard... I am going off the assumption that 88 is finding a fold here pretty often. Maybe I am wrong. But even if he calls with any pp better than fives, his range still beats us. I do not see why calling a re-evaluating on the river is not better for us. If we expect him to fire three barrels then we have a profitable call, and if we don't think he will, then we can fold. That seems a lot better than making a huge raise that gets called by hands that crush us but not by many hands we beat.
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the problem - its not easy to say, "this guy will 3barrell too often," or "this guy wont 3barrell enough". Really, you just dont know. if you know the guy well (enough history to "know" one or the other) then clearly there is a "clear" path.
also, this is a weird kind of bet, to me its a value bet, but I agree, when called you're typically in trouble (however, if ahead, they are drawing dead)
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