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Old 09-19-2006, 02:40 AM
MarkGritter MarkGritter is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Eagan, MN
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Default Re: 2-7 TD the presence of a second hand

Twodimes is just a single-draw calculator, unfortunately.

My own multi-draw tool says that you have a 21.6% chance of making a 7 if you start with 723KK. (I think the difference is probably due to the extra two dead bricks I assumed, but my software could have an error, too.)

If you are up against 85432 with 732KK it looks like the chances of making a 7 decrease only slightly, to about 20%. (You lose two outs but there are five fewer unknown cards, three of which don't help you.) You are actually worse off against 86542 because it kills three outs.

I submitted an article to the magazine this month pn the question you raise, about adjusting for your opponent possibly holding some of your outs.
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