[Aicirt]

I really dont see how BJ Penn is going to win this fight.

If youve seen the last fight, it wasnt so much Penn beating Hughes, but Hughes beating himself. Penn got the takedown early basically because Hughes took a horrible halfass shot that just put himself on his back. Then when Penn mounted Hughes, he rolled to his stomach right away which is the worst thing that he couldve done and would never do now.

Hughes has gotten so much better since that fight. Hughes' striking continues to get better and better as hes been training in the best camp in the UFC...whereas Penn has taken most of the time since then off. When they are on their feet, Hughes should get the best of Penn.

Penn is a great jiu-jitsu guy, but we saw Matt Hughes out jiu-jitsu Royce Gracie. Put that on top of the fact that I cant imagine Penn taking Hughes down, and I just dont see an aspect of the fight where the advantage would go to Penn.

And lets not forget that Penn took up this fight on short notice. And that Hughes is avenging a loss which will give him a mental edge and extra fire to train harder.

Hughes -206 seems way off to me and an extremely valuable bet.