[Sqred]

My thought pattern in this scenario is follows, please tell me where you disagree and why:

Pre-flop in a three handed pot I would lead toward three beting a MP raiser. I am 99% certain I have the SB beat, want control of the hand, and want to prevent sticky situations a solid aggressive player could present me with when he holds big overcards.

On the flop a lead when checked to by the SB seems obvious. With this vulnerable of a hand I think a position raise from the MP is actually welcomed, in that it helps define/protect your hand versus the SB. If he calls two cold after checking this flop, you can effectively shutdown with confidence. Assuming the SB folds I would just call the flop raise.

The turn is where this gets interesting. I think a check raise is the standard default line. I dont see ever mucking this hand as a viable option so I want to charge the MP as much as possible when he is drawing to live overs. Very few if any 10/20 players are going to three bet you on this board with only an overpair, so your risk is limited. Also a tight player may muck a wide variety of live overs at this point. With 10.5 big bets now in the pot this a huge mistake on his part.

If called I think the choice between betting the river, hoping to check it down, and checking to induce a bluff are all about equal. Remember, even if he hits an over on the river or had you beat all along, your show of strength preflop and on the turn should keep him off your back and block a value bet or raise from a good two pair hand.

This analysis gets really complicated against really strong players who would have smooth called your three bet with AA, KK, or QQ preflop. The presence of the SB would lead most mid limit players to four bet for value with these hands. This is just one of those sticky situations you have to deal with as you move higher and higher. Sometimes you just have to gamble and try to control the pot the best you can.

FJMcC