[Lori]

412
409/410 u32
407
428

MIN +2 vs CAR

I've written this in another thread as well, but I feel that Carolina should only be this close to MIN if everything pans out well for them this week. They need Smith back, they need to iron out those penalties, oh, and creating some kind of offensive playbook would help them a bit too.

Now the downside is that all of these things are likely to happen, but for me, if they get it all together nicely THEN -2 is about right.

In the meantime, MIN have put together an opening day win, albeit a bit of a messy one, but they were away from home to Washington and improved as the game went on. I don't think they'll get stomped even against a vastly improved Panthers outfit, and that 2 points might even be enough to swing it for us.

DET @ CHI u32

"LOL"

I kept looking at Detroit +9.5 here thinking "Well, they'll stop Chicago scoring 10 most of the time anyway", but the more I looked, the more I thought that 10 might be a massive score in this one.
I figured that I'm more likely to see a Chicago 20-7 win than I am to see a 9-0 and that instead of giving Detroit what amounts to a HUGE start in this match, I'll go with the apparent BSP play of betting on there being hardly any points at all.

BUF +6.5 @ MIA

This one doesn't have as much work put in, but I felt that Miami looked woeful on opening night and that Buffalo are capable of getting a few points together. I can see them actually winning the matchup from time to time, so a near-touchdown start seems very nice indeed.

KC vs DEN -10.5

This was always going to be my $400 pick until Green got donked. KC simply sucks on the road and DEN rocks at home. Whenever they've met in the last five years, KC have lost, mostly heavily. They were fave to win at least one of those matches, and I believe more, but either way I doubt they've covered any.
Sadly , the donking of Green has pushed the line into sillyville, and really I think this is a no-bet. However having lined this one up nice and early, I'd puke if I didn't have something on it, so it's in the $100 slot just for entertainment.

Lori (3+1 so far 4-0-0.... Guess I'll post it while it lasts [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] )