[samsonite2100]

This seems like a more or less straight up odds calaculation. You have 13 good outs for your river card. You're being asked to put in ~$28 to win ~$78 (assuming UTG puts in his remaining $4 on top of MP's raise). You're getting correct odds here not even counting implieds, which seem pretty big in this spot.

Edited to add that I think raising the flop would be pretty bad on a board this dry.