[gostros]

Before I start, do you know how many hands you had on your opponent here? That would really help me evaluate whether your very specific and important read is reliable. After all, this hand is obviously all about the read from the flop on.

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I capped preflop. If he's ever seen me cap and show down, it will have been a big hand. I can't remember whether he has but he won't have seen me get much out of line with my raises. He won't think in figures, I daresay, but he'll figure I raise about the same range he does.

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I think you're giving villain too much credit here, but it doesn't really matter. He is not thinking about your hand, only his own. That said, his range is still probobly very small, assuming your read is correct. You are WB here.

To those who think villain has a bigger range, I ask why? Does villain raise the flop with AK? Doubt it. No other big pair hand even comes into the picture. Does he raise with TT or JJ? Maaaaybe, but where do you draw the line for his preflop 3-betting range? Does villain 3-bet with any hand he would raise with? I don't know, but if he does, then 99 comes into play too. Then you have 99,KK,AA all beating you and JJ,TT way behind. Either way, it doesn't look good.

The problem here is, we really don't know the specific nuances of villain's play enough to really say much about his raise on the flop.

This is why I think a c/r on the flop would be smarter. If villain 3-bets here, you are almost surely behind, and can fold or c/f the turn. If villain calls, you could very well be WA.

The more I think about it, the more I like the c/r line on the flop. You may get an overcall as well, which is very likely +EV against your holding.

C/r clears up everything much better that leading out here. It could end up saving you bets, and it could end up getting you the maximum value if you are ahead. If villain raises, you are saving about 1.5 BB over the alternative (calling down) when you're behind and villain 3-bets. If villain is ahead but slows down, it still costs you the same number of bets as the line you took.

There are probobly some flaws in my reasoning, and I'd love to hear them!