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Old 08-31-2006, 09:15 AM
EffenDolts EffenDolts is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 162
Default Re: The Top Set dilemma

I am trying to reconcile what Buzz wrote with the following equity calculations.

Assume you hold KcTcKsQh. In each flop, you have no backdoor flush draw or straight draw, just top set.

Simulated against 4 hands with top 20% of holdings:

1) board: 3h4sKd Pot equity 39.1%
2) board: 3h4hKd Pot equity 35.4%
2a) board: 3h7hKd Pot equity 40.9%
3) board: 3h7sKd Pot equity 45.2%

The other players have an average equity around 15% in each case. You are a huge favorite with every hand. You are even favored over Ah2h5cAd. Obviously, you don't want it checked around. According to OP: "There is a bet and a call in front of you." If I am last to act, I can't see much downside to raising in late position on any of these flops. The turn might pair the board or brick the other draws. How well are you going to get paid off in that case?

I think the hands that you fold out with a raise weren't going to pay you off anyway, and they might even hit runner-runner and scoop you.

If there is no bet in front of you, you have to bet unless there was a PF raiser yet to act who is almost certain to C-bet.

If there is a bet, I am second to act, and there are 3 to act behind me, then I call rather than make them call 2 bets cold.

The one danger is that all of the good cards are in one hand. If you end up headsup against Ah2h5cAd on a 3h4hKd board, you are in deep doo doo. If the good cards and draws are spread around, you need to make them pay to draw.

Effen
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