View Single Post
  #7  
Old 08-29-2006, 05:18 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 2,260
Default Re: How useful do you find combinations ?

You're doing the wrong computations. You don't care much what the other player has, you've got 10 outs (4 6's, 4 J's and 2 8's) to make a hand you're happy to bet with; otherwise you're folding. It doesn't matter whether he has AA or 32, you'll win with your outs and fold if you don't get them. That's not quite true, if the turn is 8 and the river is A or if another spade shows up, you'll worry about his hand, but for the most part it's irrelevant.

You have a 38% chance of hitting one of your outs by the river. If this is no limit, he can make it too expensive for you to draw out, although remember he can't know you didn't start with TT, 99 or 77. So you might have a play here.

In limit, there's 3.25 big bets in the pot. It will cost you 1.5 big bets to see the river card (one small and one big bet). This is certainly +EV.

Worrying about what the other guy holds leads to passive play. Usually it's more important what he thinks you hold.
Reply With Quote