[BenA]

Hobbs, Thanks so much for doing this. I hope its still going?

This question is actually related to the one Erik W just asked:

I have recently found myself getting more and more irritated at what I think is a 'misuse' of HUD stats as a replacement for real reads. Obviously it can be an invaluable tool when combined with observation, but I think there are 4 things people often fail to address:

1. Sample size. Am I completely off when I say that only inordinately large numbers are very useful over say, 50 hands? If you see 65/38/3.6, its far less likely that this accidentally registered a true TAG who just happened to get dealt some monster hands than something like 12/4/.6, which I'm sure I would register to some players over a small sample. Just lots of speculative limping hands that hit nothing.

2. Failure to consider the meanings of stats for number of players involved. I have seen weak tight players (based both on observations and stats) literally turn into maniacal spewers when it gets heads-up, in blind battles, or they have position on maybe 2 opponents who they probably know are terrible.

3. Failure to notice if a player is position aware. I've seen posts where people often fold their TPWK because a players AF is low, but that player happens to be on the button and its a drawy board. Or on the flip side, players will raise the turn or call down with a very marginal hand on a scary board when Villain is UTG with an AF of 4. While these plays are often very correct, I think that there should be far more variables taken into account than just their stats, since a position aware aggro still might have far greater PF standards when in EP.

4. The unconditional judgement that a player is a loose passive 'fish' based on something like 42/5/.8. Yes, they are a loose passive fish, no doubt, but then Hero unfortunately begins to assume that you can just value bet whatever you want (like A high) at all times regardless of the circumstances. People are people. They may play differently, or use calling as their greatest weapon against you, and if you can't adjust because your stuck to the stats, this is a big leak.

All of this is sort of the theory that I've been trying to formulate. I would appreciate it if you would fix any flaws, and add your wisdom about this subject. Perhaps I am being too pessimistic, but that's why I'm asking. Thanks in advance.

Ben

P.S. Just thought of a point 5:

Failure to readjust if recent observation of a player goes heavily against their stats. They could be on tilt, someone else could be playing on their account, they could have just studied SSH, etc...