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Old 08-28-2006, 03:16 AM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 6,569
Default Re: Underpair, protected pot, etc

Against most opponents I would let this go on the flop. This is only a 5-handed pot so the eight and nine are strongly in the PFR's range. They are also promising cards for a coldcaller who just elected to call the flop in front of two people. Most of the time you are behind at least one opponent with two outs that might not be good and a trashy backdoor.

But let's look on the bright side. Maybe you are ahead and Villains between them only have 3-4 overcards and a pat draw or two for their flop plays. Even when you have the current best hand I doubt you average 50% pot equity.

Of course all of this is very player-dependent and some reads could influence me to play on. I'd especially like to know what Button is supposed to have.

There is another issue to address. You are out-of-position with a very sensitive hand. If you don't have any reads how are you going to know what to do on the turn and river? That's a good reason to err on the side of not getting involved.

If I wanted to play on I would peel the flop and decide after I saw the turn. Against some opponents betting a safe turn and watching their reaction will work. Another idea that works against many players is simply to check and expect a free card if you have the best hand. Assume that if the PFR bets again it means he has something. Similarly if the passive-acting button chooses to reopen instead of letting the turn check through that's probably a pair or better and you don't beat many pairs he might have.

Of course if you do get the free card you'll wish you had bet, but the occasions when this happens will be outweighed by all the times you get away cheaply from a disaster. If you can't play this weak hand with a light touch you can't play it at all. Anyway the missed bet might come back as curiosity calls on the river.
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