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Old 08-27-2006, 03:02 AM
FortunaMaximus FortunaMaximus is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Golden Horseshoe
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Default Re: help ! how should i have played my KQs

I raise flop. This is one of the better flops for KdQd. You can count the kings and queens as partial outs. Only thing you need to worry about, and not very often, is Adxd. As played on flop, MP3 is almost never folding here unless he's pretty tight-weak. Jam his raise and hit the strong draw.

Calling, hoping to peel the diamond on turn is bad. You're gonna call whatever he does on most turn cards, right? Since you've got 9-15 outs, and the true number is probably somewhere between that most times... Take both cards since you're gonna by your own assessment (<5%) of his pot commitment on turn, call the turn bet 95%+ of the time.

If you're not gonna risk it all on one hand in a tournament with a draw like that, when are you gonna? I don't mean this unkindly, and I give my share of bad advice. But this seems fairly clear-cut. I'm willing to go with the hand here, because it's as close to a coinflip at best, and at worst, you're priced in if he jams your raise with one of the best flop textures you can get without actually hitting the board.

MP3 coldcall range can be pretty wide depending on opponent in fairly late position, and he's deep enough at nearly 30BB's that you can't easily use his stack as a barometer to narrow his range. So putting him on a hand postflop, assuming he's rational? The diamond sets (77, TT) reduces your outs to 8 at best, 'cause you can't count the 6d or the infinitesmial chance of runner runner pair, and is consistent with the flop raise. The 6d has to be eliminated as an out. 98? Doesn't affect your potential for improvement unless it's 9d8d. It's a somewhat weak raise. so he doesn't mind action or is making a mistake with the raise. Give him the benefit of the doubt, say he's got a made hand or an overpair, I don't think you're ever worse than slightly under 1/3 to hit here.

Shoving the flop's fine, but I think a decent raise, pot or near pot works in a multitude of ways. You take it down right there, you get it HU with a pretty good chance of improving, you get it 3-way with a pretty good chance of improving, with a monster pot. Or you go broke. There's that too. Depends on how you assess the risk-reward to your personal style.

You don't know what MP3's gonna do once action gets to you on the flop. And SB's minbet at the flop doesn't tell me he's that excited about his hand. Even if he is, I'd be fine with playing this aggressively anyway.
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