Re: Does my hand have too much showdown value to do this?
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I would guess that his range of hands is distributed about 45%/20%/35% between these three cases. If that is the case, then a bet shows a 1.60 BB profit, and a check-raise a 1.68 BB profit. That's too close to call, considering how many simplifying assumptions I've made here.
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And, under your assumptions, the check/fold line has you never beating a better hand, but villain checks a worse hand behind you 11% of the time (35%*33%), giving you the 4 BB pot and average profit of .46 BB.
Great thread yall.
B.
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