[BigAlK]

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Hi Bang:

For your example to be accurate, you need to figure in the probabilities that Players A and B achieve the results they have, and you also need the probabilities for all other possible outcomes. Once this is done, you can then compute their overall expectation which will be to break even in your example.

best wishes,
Mason

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Mason,

I want to make sure I understand your point here. It appears that you're assuming in Bang's example that the player with 4,000 chips has them due to a re-buy (although I didn't read that into Bang's example, especially in light of his comments just before that in the thred). Assuming A has the chips due to rebuying or adding on then since neither player has an edge Player A would win 2/3 of the time, but would have also contributed 2/3 of the prize pool so he would break even. I think that's what you're saying.

However if this wasn't a rebuy tournament and Player A had acquired the chips part way through the tournament (maybe by knocking out player C who isn't as skilled as either A or B) then at this point (staying with the assumption that A and B are equally skilled) then we would be correct in assessing player A's chances of going on to win the tournament to be about 2/3 or 67%, correct?

Al