[cbloom]

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This was my first thought. If he is capable a floating and or raising the flop here with air, I don't see what we gain by leading here.


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Just because he's capable of floating & raising with air doesn't mean he always will. You reraised big preflop & have a tight-weak image. He'll think AK, AA and KK are a big part of your range and won't try to push you off those.

cbet here because it's cheap and if you win the pot 50% of the time it's nice. Just because you're not winning the pot 80-90% of the time doesn't mean cbetting is -ev.

A check-raise is just a bigger bluff. It's a lot more expensive, but works more often. To figure out which type of bluff is better would require some maths, but I doubt a check-raise wins here.