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Old 08-17-2006, 08:54 AM
prayformojo prayformojo is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Calling short stacks\' PF push
Posts: 1,247
Default Re: 200 NL AA big pot

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like a continuation bet here, at all. Other than KJ, there aren't any real draws, and we are OOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Continuation bet? Are we playing AA for set value now?

Why would we not bet out here, on ANY flop? Do you give up just because of the number of people in the hand? This flop almost certainly hit someone's hand for a pair. A better hand is possible, but we have no info yet. However, if we check the flop, AQ is betting it and, after we'ver shown weakness, we'll probably have to drop the winning hand. I bet this flop and bet it hard, closer to a PSB.

On the turn, as played, I call getting 2:1. Villain's coldcalling range probably does not include a 7. I expect to see QT, AQ or worse often enough to be profitable. Hero threw out a weak flop bet that looked like a c-bet, then checked the turn showing further weakness. TPTK looks pretty good to Villain often enough to make this a call.

p.s. That the Villain is betting a "dry side pot" doesn't mean much to me. Villain can be betting a lot of hands that we beat, but that he thinks will beat the all in short stack. A dry side pot reduces the possibility of a bluff, but does little to reduce the range of hands he'll value bet.
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