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Old 08-16-2006, 01:30 PM
betgo betgo is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 15,430
Default Re: Big Pot Heads Up - Dealer Mucks Opponents Cards - Horrible Ruling.

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First of all, I wouldn't be that upset about winning the hand there. If villain had KhKx, he had 11 outs, so you might have lost a huge pot.


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Do you realize how wrong you are here?

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If you pick up the pot now, you win 467. 205 of that was yours, so you gain 262.

If you each put another 450 in, there will be 1367 total. Villain has 11 outs of 44 cards left, so you are exactly a 3-1 favorite. 3/4 of 1367 is 1025, which is your expected win. You put 655 in the pot, so your expected gain is 370.

So your gain is 262 if villain folds or his cards or mucked and your expected gain is 370 if both players go allin. So you do better on average going allin, but the difference is not as much as you might think.

Villain is getting 2-1 on his money, but is a 3-1 dog, so getting the money in is advantageous, but not hugely so.

I am not saying that getting him to fold is preferable, just that it is not that bad a result.
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