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Old 08-05-2006, 03:14 PM
NIX NIX is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: It\'s Sabotage
Posts: 1,762
Default Re: Back to limit, sanity check plz

[ QUOTE ]
H3.
I don't like the raise PF, because against at least 6 callers I find AJo too weak. You bloat the pot and reduce your chances to protect your hand against draws later on.
I don't like your raise on the flop either: You don't protect your hand here (you lay 19:2) and I wouldn't regard that as a value raise since a str8 might be out already, there's also a flush draw and a K or Q will almost certainly beat you. There's also a good possibility that someone limped with a pocket pair of 88 or 77 and hit a set. You MIGHT raise for information, but even that is tainted, because the reraise might come from a flush draw (that you still beat right now). If that raise was for information, why don't you fold to the reraise or after the turn bet???
I'd fold to the river bet at the latest: He got 2 callers on his turn bet. Do you think he's bluffing on the river? Sure it's "only" 1 BB in a 18BB pot, but I would save that money.

[/ QUOTE ]
Because no one else raised is he reason I would raise AJ here since chances are you aren't dominated by anything here. I'd be raising AQ in the same spot here as well, even though that comes with all the drawbacks you've mentioned.

On the flop, I like the raise for a few reasons. First, while it is hard to protect our hand, we can give villians the chance to fold when they shouldn't. If we can convince someone to fold an overcard, gutshot, or a 7 or an 8, I'm happy. Second, if let everyone stay in the pot, practically any turn card that isn't less than a 7 is ugly. I like defining our hand as strong now so that if one of the boatload of scare cards hit, we can get a better idea as to what people have or are representing.

As for there being a "good possibility" someone limped 88 or 77 and made a set, that's just playing scared now.

Finally, I think calling the river heads up getting over 18:1 is a must. It may not happen often, but we can pick off an overplayed AJ, KJ, JT, 99, or perhaps a missed flush draw 5% of the time.
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