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Old 08-02-2006, 11:25 AM
surfdoc surfdoc is offline
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Default Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio

[ QUOTE ]
on the turn if the sb bets again NOW you should raise. this looks like a very strong hand and you are now quite a bit more likely to fold out a K than the almost nil chance of that happeneing on the flop. you've managed to lay way worse odds given the bet size increase and have misguided the table as to your holding.

in a 3/6 lineup, id say the flop call turn raise line is probably best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have been pondering this one a bit. Not knowing something about the SB and KLM is a problem, but if we are basically flying without reads we have a few assumptions we can make. First, if mike just calls the flop the hand will play in a completely different manner. We will usually have an idea about the strength of KLM's hand since he will have a perfect chance to raise and protect his hand with a decent king or AA. Obviously his range will be wider than that.

Now back to those assumptions. Players at this limit generally bet and raise until they are pretty sure they are beat and then they call (see mike, I was listening). Players at this limit also have the general idea that making big laydownws in limit holdem is not the way to get rich. Given these assumptions, I think your advice of raising the turn is very bad. You are basically advocating putting money in on the turn when our equity has changed for the worse (assuming we don't hit our flush) and hiding behind fold equity as the excuse. I think that folding out a king in a pot that will possibly be the biggest multiway extravaganza of the evening happens close to never. In addition, if the SB has trips and KLM folds the turn, we get 3 balled every time and hate ourselves passionately while we draw.
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