[Punker]

I think its ok. Here's my take:

5 games where they certainly would be a prohibitive favorite: SF, AZ, Oak, Clev, Oak.
3 games where they would be a small to medium favorite: StLou, Mia, Balt
4 other games where they are at worst small underdogs: Cincy, San Diego, San Diego, Jacksonville (I'm discounting San Diego this year due to the QB change).
4 games where they are decided underdogs: Denver, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Denver (not taking into account how they usually roll Denver).

So, lets say they 4/5 the big favorite games, 2/3 the small favorite games, 2/4 the small underdog games, and 1/4 the big dog games.

There's 9 wins.