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Old 07-31-2006, 04:37 AM
Josh W Josh W is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Definately Rediculous.
Posts: 2,571
Default Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio

mike -

I disagree with the others so far. You should just call the river raise.

I think that if he flops a flushdraw, he'll threebet to put pressure on a late position King (I mean, is KJ gonna wanna call 3 cold on that flop???), put pressure on the SB, and to potentially take a free card. With two others already expressing interest in the pot (the SB and you), threebetting a flushdraw is nice, especially if it gets KMS the button.

Then, if he only cold-called the flop with a flushdraw, he'd also potentially bet the turn when it's checked to him. Now he'd most certainly have a pair with his flushdraw or an OESD with his flush draw.

Thus, the chance that he both 1) smoothcalled the flop and 2) checked the turn is small.

Now, throw in the fact that 7 people saw the flop. It seems quasi likely (this is shady reasoning, but likely has some merit) that SOMEBODY must have been dealt a king. I really think KMS has KK here.

Would he check the turn with Kings full? Perhaps. If you have a hand like 77 or something, you'd quite likely fold to a turn bet, and that would be disasterous for him. Obviously he's risking losing tons of potential profit if you have a 4, so I'm in no way saying that he's guaranteed to have KK.

If you threebet, do you fold to his 4-bet? Folding the nutflush on the river closing the action when getting 17:1 is tough to do. So, I'll assume that you won't make this fold. Thus you raising the river is only correct if you are ahead 2/3 of the time. I think you are ahead about 50% of the time.

Call.

Josh
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