Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
In the late 60s, early 70s the mantra was "Zero Population Growth", and at the time 2 children per family was seen as the optimal rate to prevent "overpopulation".
The fertiity rate in the USA has remained pretty steady in the 2.05 to 2.1 range over that time. However increases in longevity resulted in that being more than sufficient to replace deaths, and insufficient to keep the population from aging. The result, after average out the baby boom and echoes etc is a working population that will be unable to produce enough to support the needs of the total population.
Immigration is not a solution because the contribution to GNP of the average (legal) immigrant is far below the average for the same age domestic producer. Illegal immigration further exacerbates the problem with an overall zero contribution. (Its actually negative but we'll call it zero to avoid another illegal immigration hijack).
A good portion of the apparent shift of wealth toward the upper end is the natural result of those demographic changes...not some failing of capitalism, tax cuts for the wealthy and other political rallying cries.
Technology has filled the productivity gap so far, but I wonder where the next great leap is going to come from.
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