Re: set fold vs josh
triumph,
that is some good analysis. i agree that his half pot leads were troubling in this hand. i really thought that his turn bet was sized perfectly for me to shove over. it was almost too perfect. at this point, i believed that josh felt he had the best hand.
the problem is, i think there is a possibility that his hand was actually worse than mine. i wouldnt be surprised if he thought 45s was good here. or maybe he was trying to freeze me with something like 35d
while i didnt mention this in the op, CO in this hand was a huge station (like 38% wtsd) but josh just sat so i dont know if he knows that. if he did know that, i think he has to suspect that my flop raise is more narrow than usual.
the point you bring up with 22 vs 44 here is interesting. i think i might call with 44 here, but probably more likely than that, i would have shoved the turn with 44.
i dunno, i have been running miserably for the last two weeks, so my play has been way off. having a 39% W$SD with 21% WTSD for 6k hands makes you weird [censored] stuff.
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