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Old 07-28-2006, 09:43 AM
Mr.K Mr.K is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Munching on Champion\'s Chips
Posts: 2,360
Default Re: Good News 4 US - but odds on passage get better???

Absent substantial, direct insider information, those TS prices don't make any sense the way they've fluctuated. As others have said, volume is very low right now. I gather I own about 10% of the contracts in circulation, FWIW.

Up until the word of the holds got out, 20 to 30 was a very fair price, and now that we've seen the political/procedural environment firm up a little, giving us a high degree of short term certainty (now thru first week of Sept), and only a moderate degree of longer term knowledge (Sept is truly a wild card, post-election lame duck less so), I would expect to see some range and fluctuation in the prices, but not quite this much. I won't buy above 18 knowing what I know now, and I won't sell below 28 or so. Anything inbetween those numbers seems IMO to be a wash, esp. with the fees TS charges for price takers. Take that for what it's worth, and know that my positions might change at the drop of a hat.
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