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Old 07-26-2006, 03:27 AM
Augie Augie is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Who run Bartertown?
Posts: 226
Default Re: UB 12k Guaranteed (33): Standard line for this JJ early in.

I'll give it a go.

First off, I think a fold is terrible. There is 340 in the pot, 170 to call, so you are getting 2-1 odds. Even if you put him on a ridiculously tight range, say QQ+ and any AK, your equity is about 36%, better than 2-1.

So, call? or raise? (And I think with these stack sizes you have to put him all-in if you raise.

We don't have any reads, but I think it's still best to have some sort of default range to use to help us out. Yes, he could be a maniac, or a super nit, but on average, most players need something reasonable to reraise with. So, lets try 99+,AQo+,AQs+ (about 5% of possible dealt hands).

Using pokerstove our equity is about 50%. Basically, we are looking at a coinflip vs. that range. If you think a typical player is reraising with more, then you are doing even better. With less, say TT+ and any AK, your equity is still 43%.

Add in the money already in the pot, the fact that you are out of position, that you will still have 900 chips left (and the blinds are only 10-20) if you double him up, and that it is early in the tourney, I think this is an easy push.

The idea of calling, and trying to play a flop, isn't a bad idea in a lot of spots, but here, with JJ, I don't think so. He put in almost 1/3 of his stack preflop. My guess, he will want to get all the rest of it in too. So, you can push now, and he calls. You can call, and push the flop and he calls (same result as pushing preflop - and yes, maybe you get some FE this way, but I don't think very much), or you can call, then check the flop, and he pushes. Depending on the flop, you might be tempted to fold, and you could be making a very bad fold and not know it. No reason to play guessing games in this spot, get it all in preflop.

BTW, I don't play cash games as much, so maybe it's easier to have standard plays, but in MTTs it is extremely hard to find standard lines. When you are dealing with a table full of fluctuating stack sizes, rising blinds, players being moved to different tables, etc., you need to evaluate each hand on its own.

I think it is better to think in terms of Standard Considerations, instead of standard lines of play. In almost every hand you should consider, at the very least:
-Your hand
-Your position
-Your stack size
-Your opponent's possible range of hands
-Your opponent's position
-Your opponent's stack size
-Stage of the tournament and size of blinds (are there antes? or other dead money in the pot?)
-Data on the other player, or reads (stats/notes/etc.)

Not a definative list, but those are some of the things you should think about during a hand.

Change any of the variables in your hand, and now you might want to just call, or even fold. An obvious example - let's say blinds are still 10-20, but now you and your opponent each have stack sizes over 4000 - obviously, you don't want to move allin preflop.

Hope this helps. There are many better players on this forum who could probably give you better direction. Just thought I'd give you some thoughts.

Be good,

Augie
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