Thread: Site bias test
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Old 07-23-2006, 04:20 PM
Siegmund Siegmund is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 1,850
Default Re: Site bias test

Well.... how tiny is tiny enough to be of no import to you?

You propose using only 300 hands (which means you will detect only a flamingly obvious bias that shifts the chances by more than about 5% on average). If you use that few, well, no worries, you'll only see random noise anyway.

Typically people who ask this type of question on the forums wind up collecting more and more data and eventually saying "hey, it's statistically significant now!"

Bunching effects can achieve statistical significance after anywhere from a few thousand to a few hundred thousand hands, depending on the playing styles ("play any ace" players common at LHE are the ones who cause it to emerge fastest.) Whether that bias will favour new players or not is hard to say -- it depends what hands both you and the average new player choose to play.

All I'm saying is that if you do a longish-term experiment and achieve statistical significance, we aren't going to believe that it did so because you've found the effect you say you are looking for.
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