Re: what to do on the river when you are raised
I did some math based upon some assumptions of what I thought his most likely hands would be. My assumptions (and/or my math) could be all wrong though. I also assume he'll never fold a better hand.
a) 55% he has another 8 and we split the pot
b) 10% he has a flush
c) 10% he has J8 for a better straight
d) 25% he has a hand we can beat
a) our EV is 0 if we raise
b) our EV is -2 if we raise
c) our EV is -1.2 if we raise (assuming he often doesn't cap fearing we have a flush)
d) our EV is .8 (he won't always call our raise)
So I get raising has an EV of
55%*0 + 10%*-2 + 10%*-1.2 + 25%*.8 = -.12 BB
Do my assumptions seem reasonable? Did I do the math correctly? If so, raising here is -EV. If not, where do you think I'm off base?
|