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Opponent's first throw is the Tc (ten of clubs):
You have the Ts and the Jd. Which is the safer throw?
Logically working through:
If opp throws the Tc he cannot have two tens (unless they are both straights).
That means the Ts will make 3 combinations for the opponent:
the 89Ts, the 9TJs, and the TJQs.
However, if you throw the Jd, it will make only 2 combinations:
The opponent cannot have two tens in his hand. He also cannot have the jack of clubs, since no one would throw the Tc if they had the Jc on their first throw. Furthermore he cannot have the Td because he would not split tens (or usually wouldn't. Might be played dependent). Therefore there are only two combinations he can have if he takes the Jd: The JQKd or the Jh Js Jd. Therefore you know the following: The Jc is still in the deck and he has those three exact jacks, or he has that exact straight.
Therefore the Jd is a safer throw. This is common knowledge to anyone who plays, but I hadn't really thought about why it was so.
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You might want to reanalyze this and make a retraction.
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Are you sure? Every strategy guide I've seen recommends the same... From
this page:
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Early in the game it is advisable to discard a card ranking one or two away (better one away) and in a different suit to the one previously discarded by opponent. Example: opponent discards 9 of Clubs. It is best to discard one of {10 of Diamonds, 8 or 10 of Hearts, 8 or 10 of Spades, etc.}. If no such card is held, next best bet is to discard a card of rank equal to one discarded by opponent
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