Re: Luck
What is the difference between knowing and sensing/having a feeling? I don't think there is one, unless it means the ability to exploit it. Just because it's hard to disprove empirically doesn't lend it credibility. The simplest arguments are sometimes the best kind. Why aren't all psychics rich for example? - Because they're not psychic.
I think I play poker fairly well, but I have virtually no talent at it. I don't get many (if any) instinctual reads. I rarely figure out a great play I've never thought of before, while actually playing that hand. On occasion (very, very rarely) I've gotten a super strong "feeling" that my hand is good or bad, which would be unlikely for that scenario. It wasn't "luck" or magic, it was just my knowledge and experience flaring in my subconscious. My mind recalled something similar that had happened previously that I wasn't consciously aware of. It's similar to when you recognize someone's face but have no idea who they are. Your mind has some feeling attached to that face and that's how you "know" you know them. I think a lot of the examples people will give you will fit into a similar mold.
I don't believe in what you're saying about some people being able to sense when a win will come. I'm not responsible for debunking any theory opposed to what I am/do. It's the theory's responsibility to prove it. There are tons of stories about people defying probability. Though I don't seem to run across many who do that consistently.
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