Re: Gin
Ok, here's some basic early game strategy, maybe it brings up some discussion:
Ok, so everyone knows that usually the best card to throw to start is either the same card as the one thats down (after the opponent declines), or the one +/- one rank apart from it, in a different suit. This is common gin strategy.
But I got to thinking why this is, which is also fairly obvious but has largescale reprecussions for the game:
Opponent's first throw is the Tc (ten of clubs):
You have the Ts and the Jd. Which is the safer throw?
Logically working through:
If opp throws the Tc he cannot have two tens (unless they are both straights).
That means the Ts will make 3 combinations for the opponent:
the 89Ts, the 9TJs, and the TJQs.
However, if you throw the Jd, it will make only 2 combinations:
The opponent cannot have two tens in his hand. He also cannot have the jack of clubs, since no one would throw the Tc if they had the Jc on their first throw. Furthermore he cannot have the Td because he would not split tens (or usually wouldn't. Might be played dependent). Therefore there are only two combinations he can have if he takes the Jd: The JQKd or the Jh Js Jd. Therefore you know the following: The Jc is still in the deck and he has those three exact jacks, or he has that exact straight.
Therefore the Jd is a safer throw. This is common knowledge to anyone who plays, but I hadn't really thought about why it was so.
This logical analysis of the gin hand can be done on the next few cards. Presumably if one is good enough at this logical process, one can use his 10 cards, plus the first couple discards to work out basically exactly what the opponent has.
I think that by the middle game presuming you are paying attention to all cards discarded and with the knowledge of your own hand, you can work out pretty much exactly what the opponent has, all the remaining cards and then work out the probabilities of hitting your cards, and the equity of going for gin vs knocking. This is obviously what the game is about, but approaching it in this manner seems to be useful...
I've also been thinking about some equity related stuff about when to knock as opposed to when to go for gin, with presumed perfect information on the opponents hand given outs to gin etc.
BTW I have not read any books on this topic, if anyone has and there's any good info, please post the info.
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