View Single Post
  #4  
Old 01-18-2006, 05:42 PM
legend42 legend42 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 1,382
Default Re: Whats the optimal hedge here? (survivor pool)

Well, if he's planning on hedging, he should definitely pick one of the favorites. For simplicity's sake, let's say he chooses Denver. Then:

- If the other guy (opp.) also picks DEN, no need to hedge.

- If opp. chooses PITT then he has an easy hedge on the Steelers ML, or he could go for the middle with the spread, just a question of how much.

- If opp. picks Seattle or Carolina, he can hedge on either of those teams, with the added advantage that he can wait to see whether Denver won the first game, which will give him an idea of his possible nets, and adjust the hedge amount accordingly.

If you want to get into the math on the third scenario, it won't be too difficult. But those are his basic options.
Reply With Quote