Re: Whats the optimal hedge here? (survivor pool)
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Assuming sum of the side bets is less than half the pool winnings I think its a +EV move.
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It is not +EV from a gambling point of view. It might make him feel better and thus have some sort of life EV, but that is about it.
The key question in all this is what happens if your buddy and the other person both win this week and next. Are they forced to split? That makes a big difference in your hedging options. Generally speaking it sounds like his best option is probably to negotiate with the other person to split the winnings or at least split part of it and then play for the rest.
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