Re: Basic line move question
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What determines whether it is better to be fading line moves or grabbing the new, better numbers?
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The source of the line move. You are correct that Pinnacle moves their lines more than anyone else, because they are an "old school" operation that manages the book not the player. If the line move is due to sharp action, then you are probably better to jump on the bandwagon despite the worse price. If, however, the line move is due to square money, then you are quite happy to take the better price. Problem is, you just never know. I've always felt that a smart strategy is to monitor the line moves at Pinnacle, and then grab the side that has been getting bet on Pinnacle at some other site before they move their price. If you can get a line somewhere that is better than what Pinnacle is offering - especially if it is because of a late line move at Pinnacle - you have a pretty good chance of being +EV by taking it.
A related strategy in baseball is to parlay the run line (-1.5) with the over if you can get both at lines equal or better than Pinny's lines. Most books will not allow this correlated parlay, but sportsbook.com does. I figure that if you are getting as good or better than Pinny's prices - which have a very small make-up for the book to begin with - then the correlated nature of this parlay makes it +EV in many cases (especially when the -1.5 team is away and >100).
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