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Old 07-02-2006, 08:14 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Henderson, NV
Posts: 8,076
Default Re: Big pot, lots of paint. Very spewful.

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Saying Hero won't get anything to fold is just being results-oriented.

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I think this is false. Given the 3-bet preflop, you're REALLY got to hope for TT-99 out of the 3-betting villain or because any combination of two broadway cards (paired or not) will have enough reason to hang around.

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I take this back, partly. I think saying a c-bet won't fold anything is giving yourself an excuse for making a weak non-play. As always, a paired flop is harder to hit than normal, so I don't see why you wouldn't c-bet as you were (correctly) the preflop capper.

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Why do we c-bet? It's mostly about winning the pot immediately, increasing the chances of winning the pot later (by knocking out a villain or two), and sometimes it's for value. The problem is that the chances of any of these happening is quite small based on the flop texture. Most of the time, a c-bet is called for. I think this flop is an exceptional case because *EVERY* two broadway card combination calls a bet.

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If you get raised on your flop bet, I think you can give it up, especially if the other player is still in, saving yourself the agony of having a king or ace fall on the turn and having to decide what to do.

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See above. I think you've got to call because a flop raise probably means your 4 straight outs are good, and you're getting odds. Even discounting it to 3, you've got to call.

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Being raised on this flop, combined with the preflop action, makes me think that Hero is shooting for the worst possible strong hand this board will make, and all of Hero's outs have to be discounted heavily, either because they improve somebody else more than they improve Hero, or, at best, we're playing against our own hand for half the pot.

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A player who flopped a hand that has hero in bad bad shape will often wait until the turn to make a play. Therefore, a flop raise here is often good news for hero's straight outs. Fearing running into exactly another AK to chop is a little much, especially since there are three players in the pot, so you're still making money when you chop.
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