Re: How favorable was this chop?
[ QUOTE ]
(Risk of finishing 4th) * 2,400 + (Risk of finishing 3th) * 2,100 + (Risk of finishing 2nd) * 1,200 >> $400.
Let's say for arguments sake that one time of out 20 things go horrible wrong and you finish 4th. One time out of 10 you end up as #3. And one time out of 5 one of the other scoops up the small stacks and beat you HU.
Well, that's already $120 + $210 + $240 = $670. This is a very optimistic assessment.
You bought $670 for $400 = 68% profit. Nice.
[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think there was a 1/20th chance I would finish 4th. However, I have 55% of the chips and I am getting 2/3 of the difference between 1st and 2nd, which is better than a chip chop if I was playing one opponent. There are some advantages to playing multiple opponents, as I was repeatedly pushing and not getting called. However, there is some danger of a third place finishand a very samll chance of a fourth place finish. It seems like this makes the deal favorable.
I would estimate my chances were 67% 1st, 27% 2nd, 5% 3rd, and 1% 4th, which would give an expectation of 2453, which is a little less than the 2500 I settled for.
|