[Nate.]

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Definitely bet for value. BB is a huge dog to beat you and SB sounds like he may call and draw dead. I might cap after the first draw.

-DeathDonkey

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Agreed with the value bet statement. Think of it this way, you are 99.9% positive they are calling you down, get the money in the pot NOW rather than later, because you don't know if there will be a later. Its the same reason why you will often raise and re-raise on the flop, rather than wait for the turn in a multi-way pot... the concepts never change, its just a different game.

As for the flop, there is merit in capping and there is merit in calling. If your opponents are over-aggressive with loose draws then I like the cap allot, except for the type of opponent who will stand pat after someone caps with J high just to see if you will break (this opponent type is rare on UB, but they exist). If they are laggy but generally draw to good hands a cap is not recommended because the good cards you need may already be out there.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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TT --

Thanks for the comments. I know a bet has value, but I'm worried it will cost me the pot if it causes the BB to break and draw -- and if he draws I think he'll be drawing plenty live -- when I'm all but positive my hand beats his.

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He THINKS he is drawing live, but in reality he probably isn't since a lot of the cards he needs are most likely in your or your opponent's hands. This is a concept borrowed from Razz, I advise all serious TD players to read Sklansky on Poker because although its a different game the thought process is exactly the same. Always consider live cards, number of opponents, and pot size when playing Triple Draw - its a safe bet your opponent does not include these factors when making decisions.

Anyway lets use a hold'em analogy again. You have Aces pre-flop, villain open-raises, you 3-bet, and he caps (he sucks at poker) with KJ - 9.5 SB to the flop . Flop comes 345 double suited then your opponent turns over his cards. You know he has a 4-flush and 2 overcards but you have him beat. Do you still bet the flop? If he raises, do you still 3-bet or do you call down hoping he doesn't hit his card 1 in 4 times? Of course you are going to get your money in there knowing your ahead, because if you play it the same each and every times you will show a significant profit in the long run. Each bet and raise is +EV for you.

Now apply the same thinking to Triple Draw. Your argument doesn't hold up anymore right?

I hope this helps, its the simplest way I could think of explaining the concept.

PS: If you are also nate on UB, you have become a much better player. You used to put too many bets in when it wasn't called for, I don't see that as much now from what I remember.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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TT --

Thanks again.

I'm not "nate" on UB.

I'm taking into account, or attempting to, the factors you mention. Of course, I tried to take into account cards being in other people's hands, but I think I miscounted them badly, because he should only have 5 or 6 or so, on average. That right there probably invalidates the calculations I made in the post above and swings it to a bet.

Anyway, I very much appreciate your comments on the equities in this situation and I'd like to hear anything anyone has to say specifically about the value of inducing an incorrect stand-pat.

--Nate