[Nate.]

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Definitely bet for value. BB is a huge dog to beat you and SB sounds like he may call and draw dead. I might cap after the first draw.

-DeathDonkey

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Agreed with the value bet statement. Think of it this way, you are 99.9% positive they are calling you down, get the money in the pot NOW rather than later, because you don't know if there will be a later. Its the same reason why you will often raise and re-raise on the flop, rather than wait for the turn in a multi-way pot... the concepts never change, its just a different game.

As for the flop, there is merit in capping and there is merit in calling. If your opponents are over-aggressive with loose draws then I like the cap allot, except for the type of opponent who will stand pat after someone caps with J high just to see if you will break (this opponent type is rare on UB, but they exist). If they are laggy but generally draw to good hands a cap is not recommended because the good cards you need may already be out there.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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TT --

Thanks for the comments. I know a bet has value, but I'm worried it will cost me the pot if it causes the BB to break and draw -- and if he draws I think he'll be drawing plenty live -- when I'm all but positive my hand beats his.

One thing I didn't mention is that the BB isn't a frequent checkraiser in spots like this one. Thus I think I can be pretty sure he doesn't have a 7 or 8. Supposing he was drawing to 2345, he's something like a 2-1 dog to have a 9 through J. To bound the question as favorably as possible for checking, let's suppose he drew to 5432 and his check means he doesn't have a 7 or 8. Let's also suppose SB drew to 732 and checked in the dark.

Then we know 15 cards; of the 37 remaining, 5 are 7's and 8's; of the other 32, 12 are 9 through J. If he will always break those to a bet but stand on them to a check, the pot-losing cost of my bet is 12/32 * 12 outs / 36 cards * 10.5 bets = 10.5/8 of a bet. Supposing that he won't always break/stand as I outline, we can adjust downward to 1 bet.

When we bet the BB will always call and he will win a little less than 1/3 of the time. When the SB calls he will win less than that, and he will call too much. Together that's about half a bet of equity. We also save the pot when SB would have drawn two and won (almost never).

These numbers seem to indicate a check. Of course the assumptions are extreme, but:

-BB is drawing very smooth: I was very confident of this.
-BB will break 9-J to a bet: I'm confident he'd fold jacks and tens, but I could also see him puffing his chest out and standing pat sometimes, especially with 9-perfect.
-BB will stand pat with 9-J if I check: this is tougher but I think it's pretty close. On the other hand the smoothness of his draw will tempt him to check. One thing here is that I think he perceives me as playing the big streets predictably.

Oh, checking might also get me a bet on the last round that I wouldn't have done otherwise. On the other hand, it could let them play better if they figure out what's up.

So I guess I lean toward checking. Of course, smart money says I made a mistake somewhere up there... please let me know what you think.

--Nate