Is there merit in a check-raise here?
Villain is a regular in the game and pretty LAG (39/16.5/2.65, attempt to steal ~27%). He's not a complete lunk but I like having him at my table.
Folded to villain on the button; he raises. Small blind folds and I call with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I don't see much point in donking or check-raising here because he loves to get frisky on the flop. It's unlikely that he will fold, it is more likely that I will face a raise. So, I check, he bets (which he will do 99.9% of the time in this situation) and I decide to take one off.
Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain's range here is very wide and includes any pair, any Ace, any King and lots of connectors and one-gappers. He will bet if I check. If I check-raise, he will probably fold any unpaired hand with no club in it, including better Kings. I think it is likely that he will fold a lot of small non-club pairs, as well. If he has a made flush, he will definitely punish me with a reraise. If he has an Ace, he is going to call down. If he just calls, I will fire again on the river because he will call the turn check-raise with any club and possibly something like a ten that he will fold if he doesn't improve on the river. The hands he is most likely to call the check-raise with are an Ace or a worse club draw.
Do you think I gain enough value from taking the pot down unimproved to make the turn sexy a good idea?
SpaceAce
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