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Old 06-21-2006, 02:50 AM
Bishop22 Bishop22 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Amphora Lounge
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Default Re: A few exceptionally high EV poker futures bets

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Seem like there is value on Hellmuth and Arieh getting bracelets at 20-1. Hellmuth has scored 6 years out his 17 year career. Even if he has slipped in the past few years, still think it is somewhere between 9 and 12-1. I have a feeling because he slipped behind Chan and Doyle in total bracelets he may be more motivated than ever. No idea how long Arieh has played but he seems to be on top of his game, two years with bracelets including last year.

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I don't like the bet because I don't see either one of these players playing most of the events, and I personally think those two could only make it deep in a PLO or NL or PL Hold'em event (possibly limit for Phil). I want a player who is good in events in the smaller fields like O/8, Seven Card Stud, Stud8, 2-7 NL, and the $50,000 HORSE event. But if you had to chose one, I like Hellmuth more than Arieh.

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My thinking: can you really see Arieh and Hellmuth going for 20 years without a bracelet, just seemed unlikely for either one.

Will someone take action on whether or not this bet will get cancelled I would really like to hedge [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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