Re: Two stoxtrader hands
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how do you know that you can offset bad rivers with the times your ace high is best? what if there is a significant difference (i.e. bad rivers will occur far more than ace high winning). Not explaining this well, just want to know how you can just cancel out these two events.
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In the math I did, bad river means bad river redraw when you hit the turn. So not only do you need to draw an ace to beat his pair, he needs to redraw a bad river against you. This is a very low probability event, and shouldn't affect EV much. I'm kind of hand-waving here and saying that if you can milk anything at all out of your ace-high showdown value, it will offset this improbable river redraw parlay. As Nate pointed out, by making an intelligent decision based on the river card, we should be able to get at some of that showdown value.
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