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Old 06-12-2006, 09:05 PM
DesertCat DesertCat is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Pwned by A-Rod
Posts: 4,236
Default Re: The details of my Big Bet against Krispy Kreme

Buffett is right. I wanted a huge (10x) return so I bought options that would pay out 10x in BR, while taking the risk they'd expire worthless in almost any other scenario. While I think the odds of bankruptcy are better than 10% or so, making this a +EV bet, the ITM options have very nice payouts in BR, but also retain value the majority of the scenarios. So essentially, the ITMs are like a +EV coinflip that pays some random amount between 1x and 5x your bet. That's much better and has much lower variance than 10-1 on a 15-20% event.

As far as the report goes, the sales weren't down as far as I had hoped, and their same stores sales language was confusing, but if I read it right seems to indicate that company owned same store sales have rebounded somewhat. They are still a long way from being a profitable business IMHO. They should issue a separate 8k with liquidity in the next day which will let us know if they are close to a BR filing or not.
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