Re: Speaking of Resteals
I'll use the range you gave for him to show how to do the math. AQ+, JJ+ is 4.2% of all hands so if he only calls with those and he is raising 30% of hands, he should fold to your push 86% of time and call 14%.
86% of the time he folds and you gain t7075.
14% of the time he calls and you are 25% against his calling range so you gain t29228 25% of the time and lose t26228 75% of the time.
(.25*29228)-(.75*26228) = -12364 when he calls
Now combine the times he folds and times he calls and(.86*7074)-(.14*12364) = 4353.54 making this +EV.
I should mention that the calling range you give him seems crazy tight and the more hands he calls with here, the less +EV this move is. You should try checkin out the EV with a looser calling range.
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