Re: Luck Variance Factor
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...many people also say that it's 100% skill in the long run.
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It is. A pretty basic rule of statistics:
L = k/(n^1/2)
-where L is the amount of the degree of accuracy of the results (or in the case of poker luck). If there is a lot of luck involved the accuracy of the results are low; it would be very easy for a winning player who made the correct play to lose. Example: for political polls the margin of error is determined by the sample size. If the sample size is greater there will be less error. It would be likely that a poll said the wrong canidate was ahead if the margin of error was greater.
-k is a constant. In a high varience game k would be greater. Also if one canidate was a heavy favorite in a race k would be greater than if it was close.
-n is the number of hands you play. Or in the case of a tourneys the number of tourneys you play. For a political poll n would be the number of people surveyed.
Long story short, as n approaches infinity L will approach zero.
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