[jschaud]

if i remember correctly. you pick a door. then monte opens one of the other two showing a goat. then you get to decide to switch or not. if this is the scenario, then it doesnt matter if you switch or not. its still 50/50.

basically he opens a losing door and you now get to pick your door again with 50/50 odds. by not switching you are in effect re-choosing door A vs. door B which is no more likely now to have the prize than it was before. monte only removed a bad choice which equally improved your odds that you picked correctly.


Math: someone figure out the probability of the prize being in A, given C does not hold the prize and i think it will come up 50%, the fact that he is opening B sometimes and C sometimes shouldnt affect the logic.