Re: Overcards hand from review session
The equity in the hand IS ok as far as it goes. I recognize that there are an awful lot of cards in the deck that can hit the turn and improve my chances of winning. The reasons I don't care to bet:
1) My equity advantage, if I even have one, is very small
2) I'm taking the chance of getting check-raised. The maniac in CO to my right could very well raise or even 3-bet just to screw with everyone. This is not a happy result.
3) In general I'm not folding the fish for a single bet on the flop so I can't buy any outs.
4) At these levels you might be able to buy a free card if you're a raiser but a simple bet from the button on the flop won't scare any of these level 1 thinkers from simply playing their hand on the turn without regard for what I did on the last street. You will see someone else bet the turn 70-90% of the time even if I am the one who bet the flop - again, especially with the maniac CO.
5) I'm basically weak-tight at heart and with a hand like this I'm happily taking my free card now and re-evaluating for the turn.
One leak I think I have in my game is that I have been pushing marginal siutations like this too hard with the fish and getting killed for it. My BB/100 winrate has decreased by over 4 in the last few weeks and while it could just be that wench variance I'm looking straight at me first.
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