View Single Post
  #2  
Old 06-05-2006, 12:10 PM
Pokey Pokey is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Using the whole Frist, doc?
Posts: 3,712
Default Re: trouble with overpair on the turn

I fold, but you messed this hand up long before you got to this point.

Preflop, your raise was too light. The general rule is 4xBB+1/limper. With three people limping in front of you, an appropriate raise would have been $3.50, not $2.50. You offered the field odds that were too good, and they took it -- now you've got five people seeing a flop, which is not good for your queens.

Then, you get lucky enough to have a relatively safe flop. Barring an unlikely set, you've got a winner. When three people check to you, you bet into the five-way hand...less than 2/3rds the pot? I'd have made it $15 to go. That's WAY too many people for your hand to be happy; you've got to absolutely dive-bomb this flop to push out the looky-loos.

As played, I'd let this hand go on the turn. Twice now you've announced that you like your hand; twice now he's called. Then, when the board pairs he overbets the pot all-in. That's either a maniac making a HUGE stone-cold bluff, or it's someone who's got trips or a boat who is trying to extract tons of value out of you. Which is it? You don't have enough information to say. However, you know how often he's got to have junk for the call to be right: 46.45/(29.25+46.45) = 61.4% of the time. Even if this is a bluff HALF the time, calling is -EV. I can count on one hand the number of people I've seen who routinely bet 1.5xPot all-in with nothing, but I've seen MANY people who overbet with great hands to mimic a bluff. Sure, he MIGHT be bluffing, but if so, it's a good bluff, and you need to believe it.

Let it go, but protect your hand better next time.
Reply With Quote