Re: $215 - aggressive against field with draw (Level II)
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I dunno, isn't it 1 - (chance of not hitting 1st card * chance of not hitting second card)
1 - (34/47 * 33/46) = 48.1%
Doesn't work like chance of rain. Within 35 cards an out HAS to fall, but rain doesn't.
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But either "rain" or "not rain" has to fall. It's exactly the same with cards.
Your math is right, 1- ((chance of not hitting turn)*(chance of not hitting river)) is the chance of hitting on the turn OR the river. However, (chance of hitting on turn) + (chance of hitting on river) is not equal to the above calculation, because you double count the times that you hit on both the turn and the river. However, 1-((chance of not hitting turn)*(chance of not hitting river)) is equal to (chance of hitting turn) + (chance of hitting river) - (chance of hitting both turn and river). Substitute "hitting" with raining and it's the same analysis.
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